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How to predict influencer marketing campaign results

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We all know that recommendations from friends work better than TV advertising. According to the research results, recommendations from influencers work even better: 33% of the consumers say influencers are trusted sources when making shopping decisions, while only 17% trusted friends and family for shopping recommendations.

It is not a surprise that brands want to collaborate with the influencers. And every business expects excellent results from such an integration. However, to achieve the goals, analyzing every tiny detail before starting a campaign with opinion leaders is necessary, and it is helpful to know what metrics and indicators to consider while preparing an integration.

Today, we are going to deal with the topic of influencer campaign forecasting. What to keep in mind before starting a collaboration with a creator? 


Influencer marketing is still based on feelings rather than metrics. Marketers often select creators based on the “like/dislike” principle and focus on those parameters that do not negatively impact the advertising campaign’s effectiveness. It is more accessible to calculate it manually without relying on statistics, but this will not lead to good indicators.

That is why many see this type of marketing as an experimental channel. At Famesters, we know this is false: we rely on proven data and precise figures to make the industry transparent, clear, and measurable.

Influencer marketing has been proving its effectiveness for several years now. Thus, from $16.4 billion in 2022, the influencer market is predicted to grow to $21.1 billion in 2023:

Influencer Marketing Market Size

With the market’s growth, special agencies working with creators appear, collecting metrics from social networks and analytics systems. They try to show an accurate picture using specific algorithms. For example, Famesters is an influencer marketing agency you can always opt for to select the right creators, the ones that are 100% reliable as we thoroughly vet them and ensure there’s no fraud. We plan and analyze dozens of advertising campaigns every month.

However, if you want to manage your marketing campaign in solitude, consider our advice on how to predict and measure an influencer marketing campaign.


You must set up high-quality analytics to run a successful influencer marketing campaign. So, if you order advertising for any image-based story, first decide how you will track the indicators: conduct surveys with customers or monitor traffic.

To have a lot of applications and sales, evaluate the result, calculate the ROI, and look at the effectiveness. For example, in addition to sales and traffic, you can see whether the following indicators have increased: 

  • time on the site;
  • which pages the users visited;
  • what the users were interested in.

It should be familiar to you that you will see different prices for advertising from a creator. It all depends on how you reach out to this person: directly or through the special platform. In other sources, the prices may vary. Therefore, to get acquainted with the actual cost of advertising, find out the price on different sites. This way, you will find a precise cost of the work.

Read more on the topic:


Evidently, one of the questions that brands are worried about is the price of the collaboration. Usually, it is impacted by several factors. First of all, it is the quality and size of the channel. Secondly, the topic of the profile. The better the content, the more expensive the integration becomes. Remember, collaboration with nano- and micro-influencers is only sometimes cheaper, as they can be of great benefit in one topic, and you can get more orders from them than from promoted accounts.

You can add your product to the influencer’s video or ask them to review it. Creating content, of course, takes more time for influencers, so that they may ask for more money.

Formulas for analysis

  1. Start by defining KPIs (key performance indicators). What do you want from an influencer? Do you want to get more views? Increase sales? Attract more followers? Calculate how much you can pay for one action.
  2. Then, calculate the CPV (cost per view) and compare it with other channels. CPV is the ratio of the placement price to the number of views.
  3. Now compare the figure with other traffic channels through Google Adwords or in the advertising account on Facebook. Divide the average reach of one post by the cost of integration.

However, it is worth understanding that such a comparison of the results of influence advertising could be more objective because in the target, you get views, but the influencer gets loyalty and attention.

Read more on the topic:

Important components of assessment

When considering the cost of advertising, it is necessary to take into account the influencers’ popularity and fame and the level of their authority. A popular creator will ask for a more significant fee for the work performed than a little-known influencer. In this regard, many customers refuse to work with influencers. At the same time, the creators themselves will not accept an offer of cooperation if it contradicts their values.

Sometimes, a commercial will include a hashtag or a brand description underneath it. Of course, if people don’t like it, you’ll see the result as negative comments below the advertising posts.

Effectiveness is affected by the number of times a brand is mentioned after an ad. You can also see that people have become more interested in the product on Google or other search engines. This will all be the result of the influencer’s work. Please note that influencer marketing agencies evaluate and convey the work to you as a comprehensive report.


1. Promo code

If you are an e-commerce business owner, you can provide a discount for the influencer’s followers. Promo codes are used for this. And by the number of promo codes used, you can quickly evaluate the quality of work of this influencer.


  • The promotional code carries certain conditions for the buyer. For example, a discount.
  • For ease of use, promotional codes should be short.
  • The promotional code contains information about the conditions and duration of its validity.
  • If you involve several influencers in your advertising campaign, each should have an individual promo code.
  • Encourage the influencer to focus followers’ attention on the advertising promo code.

2. UTM tag

A UTM (urchin tracking module) tag is a unique character added to a website’s URL. This tag is beneficial for influencer marketing. Using them, you can control site visits, sales, etc. Data from UTM tags is transferred to analytical advertising systems—for example, Google Analytics.


  1. Following the customer’s request, the influencer can choose any call to action, for example: “Follow the link”.
  2. Influencers with over 10 thousand followers can create an active link in stories.

Stages of creating an advertising UTM tag:

  1. Enter the link address that the users shall follow.
  2. Add a unique value to the link.
  3. Get a ready-made URL with UTM tags. Remember that the link is updated when changes are made.

These stages of work are very convenient to use when collaborating with several creators at the same time.

3. ROI

ROI is the revenue received from the costs of developing a marketing campaign. If there is a return on investment, this means that advertising is generating revenue.

ROI calculation:

Suppose you invested $ 30,000 for ten publications from 10 influencers. Then, the price for one placement will be $ 3,000. If the sales volume was $200 000, then the cost recoupment amount is calculated using a straightforward formula: revenue minus costs:

$200 000 – $30 000 = $170 000

Therefore, we calculate the return on investment (ROI) (170,000/30,000) * 100% = 566%. Then, the campaign costs were recouped five and a half times. Of course, ROI is not a universal tool, although the number of brands measuring it and tracking the sales from their influencer marketing campaigns grows yearly:

Percentage of brands measuring the roi on influencer campaigns

There are many situations in which it is impossible to calculate this coefficient. When a user needs time to buy or try on clothes or shoes, ROI practically does not work. But, of course, this method can be used in the form of presentations of influence projects.

Another valuable point to consider during the influencer campaign forecasting is the metrics that help track the performance of each social media network.   


The pricing of advertising integrations for influencers on this social network still needs to be regulated in any way, and the correlation between the amount, the effectiveness of placements, and account statistics is often questionable.

Therefore, to check the success of the advertising campaign, we recommend paying attention to the following statistics:

The key indicator is reach, a metric showing the predicted number of unique users who saw the content.

Unique metrics (1 user = 1 action or 1 live account):

  • Likes are an indicator that reflects the number of people who liked a post.

Non-unique metrics:

  • Impressions – the total number of views of posts and stories.
  • Video views – the number of users who watched the video for more than three seconds.
  • Repeated views can be counted by the platform no more than once a day.
  • Comments is a metric that reflects the number of comments under posts, and several posts can be published by one user.
  • Clicks in stories – the number of clicks on a link posted in stories.

In addition to statistics provided directly by the platform, you should also pay attention to the following:

Metrics based on influencer’s expertise:

  • Frequency of advertising posts. The indicator is usually analyzed over a period of 1-3 calendar months as part of familiarization with the creator’s content.
  • Estimation of the engagement rate (ER), which allows you to understand how actively users interact with the content on the influencer’s page.
  • Estimating engagement rate by reach (ERR) to analyze overall content quality.
  • Geographic data, gender, and age – the brand’s target audience capacity in the influencer’s followers.

Metrics based on data from analytical platforms:

  • Number of bots and mass followers to assess audience quality.
  • Intersection of subscriber audiences.

Indicators of quality audience and followers overlap allow you to estimate the cost of contact with a unique user and determine the frequency of the advertising campaign.


YouTube is the world’s most popular video hosting service, where creators can share video content and communicate with viewers in real time.

The key indicator is the number of views. Even though the metric is not unique, the maximum value of repeat views per day that the platform can consider is not disclosed by YouTube.

Unique metrics:

  • A unique number of users lets you understand how many people watched the influencer’s video over a certain period. Recommended for calculating CTR.

CTR = number of clicks/number of unique viewers × 100%.

  • Likes.

Non-unique metrics:

  • Comments;
  • Clicks on links in video descriptions.

Metrics based on influencer’s expertise:

  • ERR from the number of views.
  • ER from the number of followers.

For post-campaign analysis based on the fact of advertising, according to ABA participants, it is necessary to take into account:

  • Viewing depth/viewer retention.
  • ER from unique viewers.

These metrics are analyzed solely based on screenshots from the author’s account requested from the influencers.


A platform for live broadcasts, which has become the leading distribution channel for eSports content for many years. A distinctive feature of the platform is the high level of authenticity and the power of the recommendation format. 

One of the most common ways to advertise a product on this site is integration with streamers, the effectiveness of which can be assessed using the metrics.

The key indicator is unique viewers, the number of unique users who watched the broadcast.

Unique metrics:

  • Minutes watched – the total number of seconds each viewer watched the entire broadcast.
  • Unique chat participants – the total number of viewers who left a comment during a specific broadcast.
  • The average number of simultaneous viewers of the broadcast.
  • Largest number of viewers during viewing.

Non-unique metrics:

  • Views.
  • Clicks on a link in a chatbot.
  • Clicks on the banner in the broadcast description.


It is worth understanding that all analytical figures mentioned above are necessary for your assessment. Influencers are not always ready to sign to specific indicators, at most to the approximate number of views. And even those under the condition of no sanctions for failure to meet KPIs.

Influencer campaign forecasting is difficult, and comparing them with media placement needs to be corrected. This also applies to how to choose an influencer marketing agency. Remember that we cooperate with people whose relationships are built on the human factor and the “talent-fan” and “talent-hater” relationship. 

Contact Famesters, as we offer a complete cycle of brand advertising, from finding the most suitable influencers to receiving reports in real time, protecting you from fraud, and monitoring the effectiveness of campaigns. We will select exactly those opinion leaders for the brand who will find a sensual response from the target audience. 


Reach the most interested, loyal, and engaged consumers with the help of influencers. Contact us to kick off your brand's promotion